With the project’s Liberal point man quietly gone under Ontario’s new Tory government, critics are wondering if a proposed $20-billion high-speed rail line between Toronto and Southwestern Ontario is also in jeopardy.
“It appears that this project might go off the rails entirely,” said London West NDP MPP Peggy Sattler.
“We, as the Southwest, deserve to know from this government whether this project will be a priority and what they intend to do to move this project forward,” she said.
But Premier Doug Ford’s transportation minister isn’t talking.
Neither is the premier’s office or two of his new high-profile cabinet ministers from Southwestern Ontario, Infrastructure Minister Monte McNaughton of Lambton-Kent-Middlesex and Agriculture Minister Ernie Hardeman of Oxford, the London area’s ranking Tory.
Several factors leave some observers wondering if the entire mega-project, talked about for decades but until recently never acted upon, is on shaky ground. Besides Collenette’s departure from the helm of the high-speed advisory committee, those factors include Ford sweeping into office in June on a vow to find $6 billion in savings, which were never specified, and the new government’s bottom-line review of Ontario’s books
They’re telling signs the Progressive Conservatives could pull the plug on the project, said Sarnia Mayor Mike Bradley, a political veteran who’s been around as long as high-speed rail has been discussed.
“I was disappointed with the David Collenette decision,” he said. “Forget the politics: David Collenette is the most important politician on transportation in the entire country and he was the perfect person for this project.
“And with the government trying to find $6 billion in efficiencies, I’m guessing the environmental assessment (for the project) could be in that list.”
For Southwestern Ontario, high-speed rail dangles the prospect of being pulled into Toronto’s commuter orbit, allowing residents of the region to more easily work in the mega-city without being hobbled by its $1-million average home costs.
Business and other leaders in the region have applauded high-speed rail, which could cut travel time between Toronto and Windsor by more than half. But the proposal has run into flak in rural areas of one of Canada’s richest farm belts, with growers worried how it will cost them prime land and affect access to their fields and markets.
Collenette was appointed by former Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne to head the advisory team working to make Canada’s first high-speed rail service a reality.
The Liberals began a $15-million process to study the impact of laying down high-speed rail lines from Kitchener to London, and in their spring budget before the election pledged an initial $11 billion for construction, with the first leg to go from London to Toronto and the second phase to Windsor.
The line would have stops in major cities along the way and link to Pearson International Airport, the nation’s busiest airport.
Transportation Minister John Yakabuski’s press secretary, Justine Lewkowicz, confirmed Collenette is gone. But government officials remain tight-lipped about the future of the project.
Yakabuski’s office, for example, wouldn’t say if there are plans to replace Collenette, whether others on the advisory committee or the entire panel are gone, or whether the $15-million study the Tories had vowed to carry out will be completed.
“We don’t have anything to add at this time,” Lewkowicz wrote in an emailed response to Free Press questions.
Requests for comment from the premier’s office, McNaughton and Hardeman went unanswered or were redirected to the transportation minister’s office.
It’s not unusual for new governments to replace appointees made by another party, especially those who lead such high-profile projects, said Martin Horak, a political science professor at Western University.
He said while Collenette’s departure doesn’t necessarily mean high-speed rail is dead, it could signal a shift in focus.
“Given there has been significant opposition to the project in rural areas, in which folks strongly support the (Progressive) Conservative party, there’s been debate within the party about re-evaluating the project, and I would suggest this might signal they are moving ahead with a different approach for the project,” Horak said.
The project has run into strong opposition in rural Southwestern Ontario, a longtime Tory stronghold, for reasons including the potential loss of hundreds of hectares of prime farmland.
But the biggest threat to the project, especially under a Tory government, is its cost, Horak said.
“One of the strongest rationales for the (Progressive) Conservative party for deferring, or perhaps even cancelling, this project would be the financial one,” he said. “If you combine that with the rural opposition, I think this is one project that is undoubtedly high on their list for possibly being cut.”
Gerry Macartney, head of London’s Chamber of Commerce, said cutting ties with Collenette simply means the government is “hitting the reset button.”
But he conceded the future of the project, which he calls transformational, remains uncertain given the economic climate. He cited the uncertainty around NAFTA negotiations with the United States and Ontario’s attempts rein in spending as reasons to be concerned.
“It’s a very nervous economy right now in Ontario and Canada . . . and when you have a nervous economy, big-ticket expenditures tend to be put in the back burner,” he said.
“So that’s what makes me disappointed and not as optimistic as I was that high-speed rail will become a reality.”
HIGH-SPEED RAIL BY THE NUMBERS
- $20 billion project to link Toronto to Windsor, making it a two-hour trip
- Stops in Guelph, Kitchener, London, Chatham and Windsor
- Phase 1 would see the construction of Toronto-London link by 2025
- Trains would travel between 175 and 300 km/h
- London to Toronto in 73 minutes
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